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專刊二 | 2019年債市回顧及2020年債市展望

編者按:

2019年債券市場穩健增長,信用風險持續暴露,個體化差異明顯,對外開放加速擴大。疫情之下,2020年債券市場將呈現怎樣的趨勢?本期,火狐體育官方網站將從2019年債券市場回顧及2020年展望出發提出自己的分析觀點。


一、2019債市回顧

1、發行概況

目前我國債券市場的發展已進入了一個新的階段,2019年度,全國債券市場發行規模延續了上年的增長態勢,全年共發行各類債券43819只,金額合計45.18萬億元,同比增長3.16%。截至2019年末,我國債券市場主要債券存量規模繼續擴大,達到97.11萬億元,較上年增長了約15.78%,我國成為僅次于美國的全球第二大債券市場。


2、違約分析:

genjuwindtongji,jiezhi2019niannianmo,zhaiquanshichangyiyou179jiaqiyefashengweiyue,qizhong2019nianxinzeng42jiashouciweiyueqiye,suijiaoshangyinianyousuoxiajiang,danyiranjiaoduo,zongweiyuezhaiquanshejibenjinjine1535yiyuan,lishileijizhaikoujinghekuankoujingweiyuelvfenbiedadao1.60%he2.16%。179jiaweiyueqiyezhong,beifayuancaidingshoulipochanzhongzheng、pochanqingsuandeshuliangdadao32jia,qizhong2019nianxinzeng14jia,zhanbichaoguo1/3。pochanqiyeshuliangdezengjia,tuxianchudangqianjingjijinronghuanjingxia,bufenqiyeyinglinenglixiajiang,zijinzhouzhuankunnan,jiashangbixianqingxuzuoyong,qiyerongzinanduzengjia,daozhiqiyejingyingchuxianweiji。


2019年債券違約具有如下特征:

(1)2019nianxinzengweiyuefaxingrenjiashujiejin2018nian,xinzengweiyuezhaiquanshulianghejinechaoguo2018nianshuiping。

(2)fenqiyexingzhikan,weiyuezhutirengrangaodujizhongyufeiguoqi。

(3)nianneifenyuedukan,weiyuezhuyaojizhongyu1-4yuehe10-11yue。

(4)fenpinzhongkan,2014-2018nianjiaoyisuoweiyuezhaiquanguimozhanquanbuweiyuexinyongzhaide1/3zuoyou,dan2019nianquerenweiyuedegequanzhonggongsizhaizhanbidadao60%zuoyou,qizhongsimugongsizhaiweiyueguimodayugongmugongsizhai。

(5)xingyetezhengbumingxian,zairongzishousuohuanjingxiameiyouxingyejueduianquan,qizhongzonghetouzi、jixieshebeihehuagongdengfeiguoqijizhongqietouzijiaodaxingyexinweiyuefaxingrenjiaoduo。

(6)2019niangong14jiafaxingrenbeifayuancaidingshoulipochanshenqing,pochanjinchengjixutisu,erqiepochanqiyedezhaiquanweiyuehouhuishoulvbingbuleguan。

(7)zhaiwuzhanqi、changwaiduifu、chexiaohuishoudeng“huayang”xinyongshijianzengduo。

(8)yongxuzhaidiyanzhanqianlimeinianzengchang,2019nianchuxian19qi、dadao2018niandeliangbeiyishang,suirancongmujitiaokuancengmianshangbingbushuyuweiyue,dankenengshitouzizhemianlinqixianbuquedingxing、guzhisunshishenzhixinyongfangmiandecijishuxing。

3、市場利率全年震蕩,整體小幅下行,兩極化嚴重

2019niansuizhuzhaiquanshouyilvdexiaxing,zhaiquanrongzichengbenxiangbidaikuanyoushixianzhu,qiexuqiujiaohao,yijigonggeichixufangliang,faxingliangdadaolishinianfenzuigaofengshuiping,jingzengliangjiao2018nianzengchang35%,buguorengrandiyu2014-2016nianlishigaofengshuiping。

資料來源:中債資信


faxingjiezoufangmian,chu2yuechunjieyinsu、5yuebunianbao、6yueshoubaoshangshijianchongjiyingxiangwai,qiyushijianxinyongzhaiyijigonggeijunjiaoweiwangsheng。fenpinzhongkan,suiranfaxingliangrengshiduanrongzuigao,danzhongpiaohegongsimugongsizhaihejigongxianle95%yishangjingzeng。

faxingqixianrengjizhongyu3nianyineidezhongduanqixian,yifangmianyuziguanxinguijingzhizhuanxingdabeijingxiashichangduiyuchangqixianxinyongzhaixuqiuyouxianyouguan,lingyifangmianyeshixinyongshijianpinfadehuanjingxiatouzizheduidizizhifaxingrendechangqiqianjingquefaxinxin。xiangbi2018nian,1-3nianqixiandefaxingliangzhanbizuigao,jiejin45%,1nianyineidezhanbixiajiang,yefanyingchushichangshouyilvxiaxingguochengzhongxinyongzhaitouzizheyidingchengdulachangjiuqideqingxiang。

xinyongzhaifaxingmingxianjizhongyugaopingjiheguoqizhaiquan,2019nianaajiyixiadedidengjizhaiquanrongzihaozhuan,danfeiguoqirongzijinyibuehua,dipingjifaxingrenzhongyezhuyaoshiguoyouqiyerongzigaishan。fenxingyelaikan,chengtourengshigexingyezhonggongxianjingzengzuiduode,zhanjuxinyongzhaijingzengbanbijiangshan,danquyufenhuarengxianzhu,neimengheliaoningjingzengrengweifu。

zongdelaishuo,2019nianzaiyilicaiweidaibiaodeguangyijijinguimowending、fuzhaichengbengaodequdongxia,yichengtouhegaodengjidichanweidaibiaode“difengxiangaoxi”xinyongzhaibiaoxianyouyi,lichabodongzhongyasuo。

4、債券市場對外開放穩步推進

2019nian,woguochutaiduoxiangzhengcecuoshi,kuodajinrongshichangduiwaikaifang。7yue,tuichu11tiaojinrongyeduiwaikaifangcuoshi,baokuojiangzhengquangongsi、jijinguanligongsiheqihuogongsiwaizigubixianzhitiqianquxiao;yunxuwaizijigouzaihuakaizhanxinyongpingjiyewushi,duiyinxingjianzhaiquanshichanghejiaoyisuozhaiquanshichangdesuoyouzhongleizhaiquanpingji;yunxuwaizijigouhuodeyinxingjianzhaiquanshichangaleizhuchengxiaoshangpaizhaodeng。9yue,quxiaoduihegejingwaitouzizhetouzieduxianzhi;11yue,quanmianquxiaozaihuawaiziyinxing、zhengquangongsi、jijinguanligongsidengjinrongjigouyewufanweixianzhi,fengfushichanggonggei,zengqiangshichanghuoli。jinyibufengfulewaizijigoufuwuguoneishitijingjideshouduan,tishengqicanyuwoguojingjifazhandeguangduyushendu。


二、2020債市展望

2019nian12yuedi,hubeiwuhankaishichuxianyouxinxingguanzhuangbingduganrandefeiyanyiqing。youyugaibingduzaiqianfuqirengjuyouchuanranxing,bingqieyiqingfashengzaichunjieqijian,daozhicicifeiyanyiqingxunsuxiangquanguogedishenzhiquanqiumanyan。feiyanyiqingchixushijiandechangduanjiangzhijiejuedingqiduiwoguojingjizaochengchongjidedaxiao,dancongmuqianlaikan,cicifeiyanyiqingrengzaichixufajiao,shibijiangduiwoguodexiaofeiheshengchanhuodongdailaifumianyingxiang,shiyuanbenchuyuxiaxingqushidejingjimianlinjiaodayali,youqishi2020niandiyijidu,jingjizengsujiangjiasuxiahua。weijianshaocicifeiyanyiqingduishitijingjidechongji,youbiyaojiaqiangnizhouqidiaojielidu,caizhengzhengceyingjianshuijiangfei、kuodacaizhengzhichu,huobizhengceyingjiangzhunjiangxiyijianshaoshehuirongzichengben。

congzhongchangqilaikan,huigulishi,wulunshisarshuanshijinrongweiji,meicixunmengchongjiguohou,jingjidouhuizhubuxiufu。jinguancicifeiyanyiqingdeduanqiyingxiangkenenghuichaoguofeidianshiqi,dancicifangkongdelidu、shouduanhecaiqudejingjiduichongzhengcegengweijishiyouxiao,yinciyiqingguohoudejingjijibenmianjianghuizhubuhuifudaoruofusudeluxian,zaifangsongdichan、feibiao、datongxinyongchuandaojizhihou,kuanxinyongyehuizhubuchuxianchengxiao,dangyangxingkaishichoujinhuobizhengcehou,zhaiquanshichangkenengfashengchedizhuanxiang,yujijinniansanjiduxiaxunzhisijidukenengjianghuichengweizhaiquanshichangdezhongyaoguaidian。

1、債券發行利率呈波動下行態勢,發行規模有望穩步增加

2020nian,woguojingjijibenmiandafuchengya,yifangmian,xinguanfeiyanyiqingdefajiao、kuosanhechixumanyan,yanzhongyizhilezongxuqiudehuinuan,lingyifangmian,youyuqianqijinrongquganggandeliduguomeng,xinyongchuandaorengranyanzhongshouzu,chixutuijindekuanxinyongzhengcebingweichedichuxianchengxiao,yincizaijingjichubuqiwenqianzijinmiandedafukuansongjizijinlilvdezhubuzoudishibijiangchengchangtai。

lingwaizaiquanqiujingjixiaxingyalijiada、jiarujiangxichaodeguojiahediquyuelaiyueduo、guoneijingjimianlinyiqingchongjidebeijingxia,woguoduanqililvjiangzaizongheguoneiwaixingshixiachuxianxiajiang,zhehuichuandaozhizhaiquanshichang,yinqiduanqizhaiquanshouyilvxiaxing。duanqililvxiajiangyuqidiejiashichangbixianqingxuzengjia,jiangdaozhiduichangqiguozhai、zhengcexingjinrongzhaidexuqiuzengjia,woguochangqizhaiquanshouyilvyejiangxiaxing。

zhaiquanshichangdefaxinglaikan,jiangjixubaochizengchang,youqishijingjixiaxingyalidiejiacicifeiyanyiqing,weibaozhangjiuyeheminsheng,huanjiebufendiqudecaizhengyali,guozhaihedifangzhengfuzhaidefaxingyouwangtisuzengliang。bingqie,suizhuzhaiquanshichanglilvdexiajiang,zuoweidichengbenderongzigongjudezhaiquan,feijinrongqiyezhaidefaxingyehuichuxianyidingzengchang。

jingjixiaxingqushiduanqineinanyigaishan,cicifeiyanyiqingyoudaozhibufenqiyeshengchanjingyingyuzu,yixiezijinzhouzhuankunnandeqiyejiangzaoyuchangzhaiweiji。changqilaikan,jingjijiegouzhuanxingshengjirengjiangjinxing,yixiezengchangdonglibuzudeqiyejiangchixuchuqing,zhaiquanshichangdeweiyueyejiangyincibaochizaigaowei。zheyaoqiuwomenjianquanhewanshanzhaiquanweiyuehouxuchuzhijizhi,jishifangfanhuajiezhaiquanshichangfengxian,shouzhubufashengxitongxingjinrongfengxiandedixian。

2、債市的規范化和國際化水平將進一步提升

jinxienianlai,suizhuwoguozhaiquanshichangguimodezhuangdahetizhidewanshan,jingwaitouzizheduirenminbizhaiquandexuqiubuduanshangsheng,woguozhaiquanshichangkaifangdebufayezhubujiakuai。weilai,woguozhaiquanshichangjiangjinyibukaifang,waizitouziwoguozhaiquanshichangdeguimoyejiangzaishangtaijie,gengduodeguojizhaiquanzhishujiangnarurenminbizhaiquan。

3、違約事件風險管控和違約后續處置機制將更加完善

2020nianwoguozhaiquanchangfuyalirengranjiaoda,weiyueshijianjiangchixufasheng。2019nian12yueyangxingdengbumenlianhefabu《guanyugongsixinyongleizhaiquanweiyuechuzhiyouguanshiyidetongzhi(zhengqiuyijiangao)》,mingquezhaiquanweiyuechuzhiyuanze,jinyibufengfushichanghuazhaiquanweiyuechuzhifangshi,jiangnenggenghaodefangkonghehuajiezhaishixinyongfengxian。

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